Did you WIN mate?
People will often ask after a race day or gaming session, “Did you WIN mate?”
The answer to this question, is what this article is all about.
Success
In any form of punting or gaming, success must ultimately be determined by the $Units Returned (PROFIT) over time – otherwise, it is simply a pastime to be had while consuming beer.
Long Term Loss
Why would anyone play a game if guaranteed to LOSE in the LONG TERM! Exactly – games like poker machines are a perfect example, guaranteed to lose 15%+ of every $Unit played – not a great loss, to toss a dollar while drinking a cool one – but you would need luck from heaven to come out in front on pokies, in the long term. Most other forms of gambling aren’t much better, when viewed statistically, the way people play most games of chance, GUARANTEES Long Term LOSS! Hard to believe, but the numbers don’t lie.
Margin Loss
All bets are subject to an Automatic Margin Loss, mathematically built into every game – through the wonder of Probability – that’s how the house makes it’s PROFIT. No matter who wins, the house typically creams between 5%-95%.
Player Advantage
It becomes crucial for the professional, to play a method that can detect and capitalize on moments when Player Advantage is high, and to strike well at these moments, and no other!
Profit Margin
In any betting strategy, there are basically 2 ways of going about winning, the Short-Term or Long-Term approach. Due to the nature of horse racing, the time periods for tracking play, span seasons and years, and therefore more suited to a LONG-TERM approach. In racing, as in all games of chance, if you constantly bet on the VALUE, or OVERS, and the Profit Margin exceeds the Commissions Margin you will be in profit over time. That’s right, so in racing, situations which give us at least 20% better value than assessed odds, will yield profit in time, as they beat the TAB’s Commission margin. This is the only hope for the punter to succeed.