Value Betting

This concept of value, simply put, is an estimate – usually made by a professional racing analyst – of the horses worth, or ability in the race expressed as a number – odds, dollars, percentage, ratios, etc. – these days usually as a dollar value.

There are complex algorithms and theory used to derive the results according to the purists, but try explaining them to the horse!!!

On the day only the horse can win the race, and the jockey guide it to do so, all the mathematics in the world won’t help if some of the jockeys have decided the winner beforehand!

What I mean by all of this is that there is a lot more to this game than just the pure math/statistics used, these are living breathing animals, with all the associated humans too having an input on the outcome, it can be quite a task to stay ontop of all available information, and come up with a winner. If we could only ask the horse, are you up for it today mate?

Rated Value
What we are looking for is a runner that is paying much better (higher $ amount) than its rated value. Profit is realised by betting what’s known as the “overs”, that is, the pick is paying well over the value estimate. So if any selection seen on G Network is paying say double the GV or more, it is highly recommended as a bet, and it will easily yield profit over time.
What about the place bet? Well, technically speaking, the place should pay exactly ¼ the WIN ODDS, that is the ontrack bookies odds (old school). You know, the so called 2 to 1, 4 to 1, etc. usually shown ontrack as 2-1 or 2/1, basically a ratio expressing the PROFIT on each unit bet, NOT the RETURN. So, 2/1 is the profit on 1 unit, that is bet 1 unit, derive 2 units profit, plus your original unit. Most people think 2/1 = $2, not true, its actually 2/1 odds = $3 returned. This all becomes important when calculating a value PLACE .

For example, what would be the value place of a horse with GV09? Firstly GV is an expression in dollars, so we need to subtract 1 to convert to Odds, GV09 = $9 = 8/1. Now the place should pay exactly ¼ of the 8/1 win odds, that’s 2/1 place odds or $3. Therefore, a $9 win should be a $3 place. In actuality, this rarely is the case on the totes, a $9 winner will frequently pay ONLY $2 the place. This is why the WIN is most desired, as it sometimes pays 10 times or more the place!

As with all punting, one must balance the need for immediate result (place today), with a more patient approach to get the usually far bigger WIN. There was a runner recently on NSW TAB at $50W $5P, on AusTote was $250W. Now thats a nice win/place ratio if you like the horse for a win (50 times the place), if one likes the runner, there is no question as to how to bet it. Take the place at $5 or the win for $250, hmmm…

If a runner is paying what’s called EVEN MONEY the win, it means that for every 1unit bet there is 1unit of profit, 1/1 or $2.00 on the tote; half of the WIN PRIZE POOL money has been invested on this runner (after commissions). Runners with odds “shorter” than this are known as ODDS ON Favourite, which by definition must be the favourite of the race, as more than 50% of the money in the win pool is on this horse to win. They pay from $1.04 (the minimum) to $1.95 on the tote.

Generally anything paying this low is a poor bet over time as one cannot afford to succeed in any less than 1 out of 2 selections. 2 out of 3 would produce a dramatic loss on anything paying less than $1.50, so these are runners to avoid unless they are set to annihilate the field by a big margin. Conversely if a runner is paying, say $10.00, you could have up to 10 go’s at it and still break even on the 10th, make a profit on the 9th, 8th, 7th, etc.

So, this concept of VALUE is starting to take shape. Some pay low, incredibly high strike-rates are required for miniscule profit or possible disastrous losses. Some pay high, much lower strike-rates needed to be in profit as the bigger pay has the ability to cover losses and yield a neat profit over time.

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