20% Loss
It is a mathematical fact that all pokies will keep around 20 cents out of EVERY dollar invested, yes 20%, of every dollar – Pokies in Australia have a quoted payout percentage of 87% or higher, but this can only be verified by long extensive trials, and as machine payout ratios vary, lets assume a round 20% is lost.

Long Term Loss
If you play through $100, the machine will keep around $20 of it, never to return! That’s mathematics. With those sort of odds, it really is a wonder why people flock to them in droves at pubs and clubs all over the country. Think about it, if you play through $200 in a week, thats $40 gone for that week, and forever! Maintaining this level of play in an attempt to recover losses, would only get you further behind, to the tune of $2000 a year. Clearly, Pokies are a loser, and if you are serious about making money from gaming, try something else.

Why play?
If Pokies are such a bad bet, why do so many people play them so fervently? Well, its a trick. Playing on human psychology, the designers of these machines have installed all the bells, whistles and lights in an attempt to excite us, alter our mood and thinking. They appear as rows of flashing signs shouting “Play me”, “Win here”. To the average person the attraction is too strong to resist, and the thought of easy money appeals to everybody. All this plays on peoples impulsive and addictive nature, which is why this form of gambling can be the most ruinous to people’s daily lives.

G Network recommends avoiding Pokies
Pokies are the worst form of gaming around. If you must play, or want to have a go while sipping a cool drink, just play a few gold coins through to try your luck.

Is there a way of winning on the Pokies?
A lot of people will tell you that they are in front on their pokie play, but have no written records to show this, they are working from selective memory and are losers. There is a way to take money from the pokies, but requires a level of planning and discipline, which most players drawn to these infernal machines sadly lack.

How Pokies work
An understanding of how Pokies work may help in the quest for easier pokie money.
It is quite simple really, the more money the machine takes, the more it pays out, less the 20% it keeps. Money OUT = Money IN (-20%) they ALWAYS keep 20% commission for the club, and our beloved government. Simple. The more money a machine has taken, the more it HAS to payout, according to a mathematical algorithm that is programmed in. They are designed that way, and this is the clue to winning on pokies.

How to win on Pokies
The tip above, “just play a few gold coins through” is a good starting point, as the more you put in, the harder it becomes to get it back. Put this together with the fact that Money OUT = Money IN (-20%), and we have the makings of a winning strategy.

Winning Strategy
Relax. Watch and WAIT until a machine has been WELL FED by someone else (Money IN), and they finally give up. Go up to the machine and play it with a few gold coins, if it pays, take the winnings (Money OUT), if no pay just walk away. Some people don’t like it when you clean out “their” machine with a dollar, but we all have the right to good luck! This strategy may require some patience and discipline, but through the power of “leveraged probability”, the run may just go your way, a little more often. Just remember, the pokies will pay out well, usually after taking some money first. If it has taken $500, it will probably be ready to pay out $400, so watch for the really big pokie players (losers), and jump on their machine after they have finally given up. Frequently the machine will payout nicely after only a few spins! Good luck.
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For more information on Australian Pokies, see OnlinePokies.com. Pokie photo by freephotosbank

This article is titled “Play Money” for a reason, this is exactly what all money allocated for racing and gaming should be, PLAY MONEY.

Never bet with serious money, that is, a large proportion of, or all that you have, as this is a sure recipe for disaster.

Probability has a way of bringing around the day when the “certainty” becomes a loser, and if that day is today and you bet the lot …

The way to avoid losing serious money, is not to bet with it in the first place. Allocate a small portion of your available cash for wagering – no more than you can easily afford to lose, that’s Play Money – either a weekly amount, or create a “Bank” as many professionals recommend.

By running a betting bank, it is easy to keep track of profit/loss, and with time watch the balance grow. Then make withdrawals, and bring some of it into the real world.

Play Money allows free play – it is unencumbered by obligations – the money is free to play for us. Very relaxing.

Did you WIN mate?

The answer to this question, is what this article is all about.

Success
In any form of punting or gaming, success must ultimately be determined by the $Units Returned (PROFIT) over time – otherwise, it is simply a pastime to be had while consuming beer.

Long Term Loss
Why would anyone play a game if guaranteed to LOSE in the LONG TERM! Exactly – games like poker machines are a perfect example, guaranteed to lose 15%+ of every $Unit played – not a great loss, to toss a dollar while drinking a cool one – but you would need luck from heaven to come out in front on pokies, in the long term. Most other forms of gambling aren’t much better, when viewed statistically, the way people play most games of chance, GUARANTEES Long Term LOSS! Hard to believe, but the numbers don’t lie.

Margin Loss
All bets are subject to an Automatic Margin Loss, mathematically built into every game – through the wonder of Probability – that’s how the house makes it’s PROFIT. No matter who wins, the house typically creams between 5%-95%.

Player Advantage
It becomes crucial for the professional, to play a method that can detect and capitalize on moments when Player Advantage is high, and to strike well at these moments, and no other!

Profit Margin
In any betting strategy, there are basically 2 ways of going about winning, the Short-Term or Long-Term approach. Due to the nature of horse racing, the time periods for tracking play, span seasons and years, and therefore more suited to a LONG-TERM approach. In racing, as in all games of chance, if you constantly bet on the VALUE, or OVERS, and the Profit Margin exceeds the Commissions Margin you will be in profit over time. That’s right, so in racing, situations which give us at least 20% better value than assessed odds, will yield profit in time, as they beat the TAB’s Commission margin. This is the only hope for the punter to succeed.

The full-blown version of MDIEditor And Lotto WE is freeware. For a small membership fee, Saliu allows access to downloads, from his online collection of Lotto programs, mathematics and statistics tools – all free! It helps if you are OK with mathematics, just start here – MDIEditor And Lotto WE Software: Tutorial, User Guide, Instructions.

• More information on Saliu and his ideas

Once you have the MDIEditor And Lotto WE program, come back to G Network and copy the Lotto Results Australia or Powerball Australia Results ALL numbers, into your database, and you’re off and running. Any Lotto game can be played, Powerball, Keno, and Horse Racing multiples too! You can play Australian Lotteries online using the Lotto and Powerball numbers data of G Network – play online with a Government approved Lotteries provider here. Get 2 Free games of Powerball to try out – here.

To make sure your data file is in correct format, see:
How To Create And Update The Data Files For Lotto, Lottery.

If you really want to WIN the Jackpot in your favourite Lotto game, go and study the rest, at the best – SALIU.COM.

Coming soon…

• How to WIN a Lotto Jackpot using Ion Saliu Lotto freeware, MDIEditor And Lotto WE.
• The Secret is in Skips, Skip Medians, Clustering, and Filters.

Factors
There are complex algorithms and theory used to derive the results according to the purists, but try explaining them to the horse!!!

On the day only the horse can win the race, and the jockey guide it to do so, all the mathematics in the world won’t help if some of the jockeys have decided the winner beforehand!

What I mean by all of this is that there is a lot more to this game than just the pure math/statistics used, these are living breathing animals, with all the associated humans too having an input on the outcome, it can be quite a task to stay ontop of all available information, and come up with a winner. If we could only ask the horse, are you up for it today mate?

Rated Value
What we are looking for is a runner that is paying much better (higher $ amount) than its rated value. Profit is realised by betting what’s known as the “overs”, that is, the pick is paying well over the value estimate. So if any selection seen on G Network is paying say double the GV or more, it is highly recommended as a bet, and it will easily yield profit over time.
What about the place bet? Well, technically speaking, the place should pay exactly ¼ the WIN ODDS, that is the ontrack bookies odds (old school). You know, the so called 2 to 1, 4 to 1, etc. usually shown ontrack as 2-1 or 2/1, basically a ratio expressing the PROFIT on each unit bet, NOT the RETURN. So, 2/1 is the profit on 1 unit, that is bet 1 unit, derive 2 units profit, plus your original unit. Most people think 2/1 = $2, not true, its actually 2/1 odds = $3 returned. This all becomes important when calculating a value PLACE .

For example, what would be the value place of a horse with GV09? Firstly GV is an expression in dollars, so we need to subtract 1 to convert to Odds, GV09 = $9 = 8/1. Now the place should pay exactly ¼ of the 8/1 win odds, that’s 2/1 place odds or $3. Therefore, a $9 win should be a $3 place. In actuality, this rarely is the case on the totes, a $9 winner will frequently pay ONLY $2 the place. This is why the WIN is most desired, as it sometimes pays 10 times or more the place!

As with all punting, one must balance the need for immediate result (place today), with a more patient approach to get the usually far bigger WIN. There was a runner recently on NSW TAB at $50W $5P, on AusTote was $250W. Now thats a nice win/place ratio if you like the horse for a win (50 times the place), if one likes the runner, there is no question as to how to bet it. Take the place at $5 or the win for $250, hmmm…

Favourites
If a runner is paying what’s called EVEN MONEY the win, it means that for every 1unit bet there is 1unit of profit, 1/1 or $2.00 on the tote; half of the WIN PRIZE POOL money has been invested on this runner (after commissions). Runners with odds “shorter” than this are known as ODDS ON Favourite, which by definition must be the favourite of the race, as more than 50% of the money in the win pool is on this horse to win. They pay from $1.04 (the minimum) to $1.95 on the tote.

Generally anything paying this low is a poor bet over time as one cannot afford to succeed in any less than 1 out of 2 selections. 2 out of 3 would produce a dramatic loss on anything paying less than $1.50, so these are runners to avoid unless they are set to annihilate the field by a big margin. Conversely if a runner is paying, say $10.00, you could have up to 10 go’s at it and still break even on the 10th, make a profit on the 9th, 8th, 7th, etc.

Summary
So, this concept of VALUE is starting to take shape. Some pay low, incredibly high strike-rates are required for miniscule profit or possible disastrous losses. Some pay high, much lower strike-rates needed to be in profit as the bigger pay has the ability to cover losses and yield a neat profit over time.

Punters take 20% LOSS on EVERY BET!!!
This cute fact is due to the TAB Tote machine’s Profit Algorithm, which takes out around 20% Commissions Margin (usually quoted as 15%-20%). That means the tote (TAB) will take up to 20% out of the pool, yes, out of punters money, as Commissions.
The average punter has lost 20% before the race even starts. In truth there is no way to recover this money, it is lost forever to hungry tote machines and their owners.

Does the punter really have a chance? Sure, see Long Term Winning and Value betting.