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Robert Prechter on Deflation

Admin — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 01:37:55 +0000

Robert Prechter on Deflation – analysis & discussion on the mechanism of Deflation. Prechter explains how deflation works, the time cycles involved, and Elliot Wave Theory analysis of events. Discussions cover the Stock Market Crash, and human or social trends as they relate to these cycles. Enjoy the videos.

Robert Prechter on Deflation & Fiat Currency (1 of 3)

Title: Robert Prechter on Deflation & Fiat Currency (1 of 3)
Posted: 18 November 2009

Title: Robert Prechter on Deflation & Fiat Currency (2 of 3)
Posted: 18 November 2009

Title: Robert Prechter on Deflation & Fiat Currency (3 of 3)
Posted: 18 November 2009

Title: Robert Prechter on Deleveraging Deflation 2010 (5 of 5)
Posted: 20 February 2010

Title: Robert Prechter on Deleveraging Deflation 2010 (2 of 5)
Posted: 20 February 2010

Title: Robert Prechter on Deleveraging Deflation 2010 (1 of 5)
Posted: 20 February 2010

Title: Robert Prechter on Deleveraging Deflation 2010 (3 of 5)
Posted: 20 February 2010

Title: Robert Prechter on Deleveraging Deflation 2010 (4 of 5)
Posted: 20 February 2010

Title: Robert Prechter - Economic Crisis Part 1 of 2
Posted: 23 October 2009

Title: Robert R. Prechter: "Deflation is coming"
Posted: 9 March 2010

Title: Stocks still face deflationary collapse - Robert Prechter, August 17, 2009
Posted: 17 August 2009

Title: Robert Prechter, Deflation & Fiat Currency (3) (NWO SERIES/ ECONOMIC COLLAPSE/ Technical Analysis)
Posted: 27 December 2009

Title: US Recession and Credit Inflation and Deflation - Prechter on Bloomberg - November 2007
Posted: 7 February 2008

Title: Robert Prechter was Right Deflation not Inflation is the concern
Posted: 5 July 2010

Title: Robert Prechter,Deflation & Fiat Currency (1) (NWO SERIES/ ECONOMIC COLLAPSE/ Technical Analysis)
Posted: 29 December 2009

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Gerald Celente on Dow Jones Crash

Admin — Fri, 07 May 2010 05:51:11 +0000

Gerald Celente of Trends Research Institute talks about the Dow Jones stock market crash in his latest video interview, following the historic Thursday 6 May 2010 drop on the Dow. The Dow Jones index dropped almost 1000 points from open, before rallying back, to finish 348 points down – Gerald gives us his analysis of events on the stock market, and future trends.
Gerald Celente: there is no rebound in the economy , Greece is a wake up call for more to come , Greece is just a symptom, the bailout bubble is bursting, you have to be out of your mind to invest in the stock market, it is a rigged game, Gerald Celente as always advises gold for wealth preservation. May 06, 2010 – The Dow Jones index is down and looks to continue to head that direction. This is not good news for the worlds economies that are trying to bounce back after this recession hit many different nations. Is this a direct reflection of the Greece financial crisis?

Source:http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com/2010/05/gerald-celente-dow-crash.html

DOW JONES – Stock Market Crash averted by Economic Recovery?

Admin — Wed, 31 Mar 2010 02:52:56 +0000

Has the Stock Market Crash of 2010 been averted due to the loudly proclaimed “economic recovery”? This article is a continuation of the earlier DOW JONES – Stock Market Crash 2010 written in January, and in response to an email sent by a reader of that article. Reader’s email: Your 1/24/2010 doom piece seems to have dissolved, perhaps thanks, in some small part, to B. Obama efforts. Do you have a follow up piece loaded with admiration and hope? Thanks – you came up first on a google search for 2012 DOw Jones predictors. – x
Dow Jones Chart 30 March 2010
Sometimes technical analysis forecasts are seen by some as “doom”, but it all depends on your perspective. The current system of Keynesian/neo-classical economics is due for a major reality check (correction), as it can’t maintain its current level of debt-creation indefinitely. This system needs to be replaced, or suffer collapse under its own weight (of debt). In answer to Mr X – Should we really have admiration for greedy manipulators that enslave our people’s future with more debt? Is there hope when no real changes are made and the same methods are being used (more debt) to try and solve the problem? These clowns keep throwing fuel on an already out-of-control fire, and want us to believe this is how you do economic recovery?

The Dow Jones has struggled since January, to rally only 5% higher than the 50% retrace of all losses of the first wave down (October 2007 – March 2009) of its bear market cycle. It has gained almost 2% on the high of January (today’s close 10907). The average gain over the last week or so, has been around 10 points per day, hardly a convincing bull run. The fractal on the chart over the last 2 months looks similar to that of the August 2007 to October 2007 extreme high, and we all know what happened from there. I am not saying that it can’t rally higher, just that it seems over-extended in time and seeks equilibrium.

Dow Jones Aug 2007 – Oct 2007

Dow Jones Jan 2010 – Mar 2010

The current market rally looks like another “sucker rally” to me, and is setting up for a stronger decline than we saw in January, when all gains (over 4 months) since September 2009 were wiped out in 3 weeks! This decline was over 900+ points or 9% of value, just short of the 10% which is a general indicator for a stock market crash – today’s markets really like to stretch the limits. So Mr X, go ahead and buy up if you like, after all, President Obama is looking after you… I hope. Just remember to get out quick when the Dow heads down to its recent low (of early February) at around 9800, as there will probably be a “gap down” once this point is breached. My ultra-high level for the Dow (on a 5% stretch past the 50% retrace level) as mentioned in DOW JONES – Stock Market Crash 2010, was at 10880 points, and the Dow has been sitting around 10900 points for a week now, and looking lethargic.

The March rally looks exhausted, the institutional investor’s money is running out, P/E ratios are too high, and the Dow is over-bought and over-extended. It is in the short term interest of Wall Street, the big banks, and governments to inflate this balloon as much as possible, but like all balloons when over-expanded they pop. The stronger forces (deflation) are much bigger than daily/weekly/monthly small moves (subject to manipulation), and will force a deflation of debt, these major forces will win in the end, its just mathematics. The next decline will likely come as a shockwave through global financial markets, unexpected and unforeseen.

So Mr X, my piece on the stock market crash has not dissolved, but the mountains of debt created to run this circus will dissolve, and real soon…

DOW JONES – Stock Market Crash 2010

Admin — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 03:15:56 +0000

The Dow Jones Stock Market Crash of 2010 looks like it’s begun, with the third week of trade for 2010 showing a 5% decline from top (see Chart below). A stock market crash is defined as a sudden dramatic decline, of 10% or more, in the stock market index. So, another week like this, or a further 5% decline, would define the current trend as a stock market crash. The Dow Jones Industrial Averages has hovered around the all important 50% Retrace level (see Related Articles below) since mid-November, and has taken over 2 months to push only 400 points higher (4% up). These gains were quickly wiped out in a few days, ending the week on Friday 22 January closing at 10173 points. The Dow is currently trading almost 200 points below the 50% Retrace level, and looking to confirm that the bear market decline will continue. As written in previous articles (see Related Articles below) the Dow would need to break the 50% Retrace level on the upside, by a significant amount, to prove that we are in a bull market now, but it has not.
See also: DOW JONES – Stock Market Crash averted by Economic Recovery?

Dow Jones Chart – 22 January 2010
The 50% is at 10360 points, Gann (a master of technical analysis) tells us, that the 50% point is the most important of all. It is a good guide as to the strength of a particular stock or index. To prove the Dow Jones will go higher, it should break 5%+ higher than the 50% Retrace level, or 10880. Only then, we can all agree in basic Gann stock market technical analysis terms, that the market is continuing its bull run, and has been miraculously resurrected again as the immortal bull!

This last week has broken the sideways snail-paced rally of the last few months, and put the Dow back below the 50% retrace level again. Another strong confirmation that the Dow Jones has reached a major high, and will continue its decline, is that the January 2010 top completes a Gann 10 year cycle exactly, from the January 2000 major high, established just before the Tech bust (14 Jan 2000 to 14 Jan 2010 – 10 years to the day). If you are thinking of trading Dow Jones index on the short side, a nice spot to place your order is around the 10360 mark, to catch the inevitable reaction rally! Place your stop 100-300 points away, or to be sure, at 10880. On the way down, there looks to be some support at around 10050, then 9600, 9100, 8200, 6900, 5500. President Obama restricting bank’s investment in hedge funds is supposedly to blame for the market’s recent drops, but any story will do, when its due its due!

As written in previous articles (see Related Articles below) the Dow Jones (and world stock markets) are still in a bear market, yes, still on a long term cycle of decline, after the most exuberant period of financial growth and debt increase in history. The Dow Jones Stock Market Crash 2010 looks quite likely now, and will be longer and more severe than expected. As we have just seen the longest rally in the current cycle, we are about to witness the longest decline (in time) of this bear market cycle. This phase of the decline should last a minimum of 2-3 months, but with a few short-lived rallies, may go much longer. Mid-June 2010 looks like a pivotal time point for the year, and a possible bottom of this wave down. This is the “painful” part of the cycle, when total lack of hope sets in, as markets and banks unwind with unstoppable losses accrued daily. Lack of faith in the financial system sets in and the spiral goes more out of control. Credit evaporates and cash becomes scarce. Corporations fall, banks go broke, and government debt defaults begin. World leaders grasp at straws trying to regulate a working financial system into play.

Robert Prechter has a lot to say about deflation due to enormous debt growth. One of his main recommendations is to buy Gold as protection – Gold is always seen as a safe haven in turbulent times, and usually increases in value at such times.

How low will the Dow Jones Stock Market Crash go? Pretty low, as there are enormous amounts of debt built into the system, and all this debt needs to be resolved in a deflationary environment. Some analysts have forecast an extreme low on the Dow Jones of around 1500 points, this looks likely. The closest timing we could get to a possible bottom of this cycle, is late 2012, completing a Gann 10 year cycle from the 2002 major low.

FINANCIAL TSUNAMI IMMINENT!! The Stock Market Crash of 200?

Admin — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 15:36:16 +0000

This is it, the stock market is down to bail outs and rumors of bail outs. The economy is down to it’s last few months. The markets will collapse, probably in several weeks.

The temporary ban of short selling on 799 financials will artificially inflate stocks possibly setting up the crash.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSPEK2402720080917

Russian Stock Market Plummets. Sep. 17, 2008.

Admin — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 15:36:54 +0000

Sep. 17, 2008.
Russias major stock exchanges, the RTS and the MICEX, suspended all trade for an hour on Tuesday after indices took a dive. The fall reflects events on Wall Street, where share prices have plunged largely due to the fourth largest American investment bank Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy protection.

If the American stock market is going down, its taking everybody with it. The Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX) saw its worst ever day, plunging 17% on Tuesday.

Three months ago the Russian Trading Systems dollar-dominated index hit record highs – along with the oil price. Now the RTS has fallen by half and oil is down one third.

I believe China is the worst performing in the world. Ukraine is right up there. But investors have certainly noticed the u-turn the Russian market has taken in the second half, says Erik Depoy, Alfa-Bank equity strategist.

Of the BRIC emerging markets, China, is down 60%, Russia is down 50, and Brazil and India around 25%.

A lot of other countries in the world are very envious of Russia’s very strong fiscal position, the budget surplus and so on. But the financial markets are a very different story. And again, the fact that Russia was performing so well in the first half is a recognition of this, Depoy says.

Central banks around the world have pumped money into the financial system, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve with $US 50 billion. Russia allotted US $19 billion to the Russian markets on Tuesday, with more planned for Wednesday.

I think Russia’s relatively well positioned because although its right at the bottom its now also by far the cheapest so if there’s a rebound one could assume that Russia will come up really fast, says Tom Mundy, equity strategist at Renaissance Capital.

As bad as the situation may look, there is a silver lining. This latest sell-off shows Russia is now closely integrated in the world’s financial system.

Source:

http://www.russiatoday.com/business/news/30530

Lehman Brothers collapse. Sep. 15, 2008. Stock Market Reactions

Admin — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 15:37:03 +0000

Sep 15, 2008.
The venerable Lehman Brothers investment bank said early Monday that it will file for bankruptcy, while Bank of America unveiled plans to buy Merrill Lynch — two pieces of news that profoundly alter the American financial landscape.

The fast-paced changes capped a roller-coaster Wall Street weekend and threatened to stir up U.S. financial markets already reeling from woes at other major financial firms and mortgage financing titans Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

“This crisis is clearly deeper than anybody had imagined only a short time ago,” Peter Stein, an associate editor at The Wall Street Journal in Asia, told CNN.

Lehman Brothers said in a statement early Monday that it plans to file for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. The 158-year-old investment bank had been undermined by bad bets on real estate — the value of its shares declined 94 percent this year.

The fall of Lehman followed a wild, three-day scramble by top Wall Street executives and federal regulators, who worked around the clock to come up with a solution to a still-unfolding financial crisis.

By the end of the weekend, the Federal Reserve had stepped in to try to calm the markets by announcing plans to loosen its lending restrictions on the banking industry.

A consortium of 10 leading domestic and foreign banks agreed to create a $70 billion fund for loans to troubled financial firms.

Source:

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/09/15/banks.bigchanges/index.html

The Federal Reserve is Engineering the Economic Collapse

Admin — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 15:35:58 +0000

To most Americans, the Federal Reserve is just another name on their dollar bill. They don’t know that this secretive private bank controls America’s entire economic system. The Federal Reserve is no more federal than Federal Express.

Created with no constitutional authority in 1913, the Fed prints money out of thin air and loans it to the U.S. treasury at interest. This can only lead to one outcome: debt. Currently, the Federal Reserve is printing billions of dollars to bail out Wall Street while destroying the middle class and the dollar. If our country wants a sound and transparent monetary system, we need to abolish the Federal Reserve and bring the power back to the American people.

VIDEO: Economic Collapse and the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve is Engineering the Economic Collapse